While I currently live in Ottawa, I grew up in Sudbury. There is a fear in Northern Ontario that the MMP proposal could reduce the representation in Northern Ontario even more than has happened in the past. While the majority of Ontario's population primarily vote based on ideas and thus party platform and performance, Northern Ontario is special in that geographical considerations are considered more important than they are in other parts of the province.
Summary
How the province will be divided up into ridings for the 70% of parliament made up of riding representatives is not part of the referendum. This is a question that will be debated in parliament and passed as a bill just as previous representation bills have been passed. I will very likely make a submission to this process expressing the views I am in this article, and hope others that support the unique nature of Northern Ontario will do the same.
In my opinion, the most likely scenario will see the number of riding seats Northern Ontario has today kept as a minimum, but with an overall increase in people in future parliaments who understand Northern Ontario issues.
The least likely situation under MMP would see what Northern Ontario people are worried about, which is that the 70% of seats (90 seats in the next election) evenly distributed by population across the province. This would mean the special geographically based issues of Northern Ontario wouldn't be adequately represented. In fact, their worry is far more likely to come to pass under the current First Past the Post voting system.
Background
While this is the first time voters are being asked their opinion in a referendum on the composition of parliament, there have been many other recent changes made by false-majority governments.
In the 1987, 1990 and 1995 Ontario General Elections we elected 130 politicians, very roughly representing the population contained within each riding.
The Progressive Conservative government tabled and passed Bill 81, the Fewer Politicians Act, 1996 without much in the way of consultations or debate, and definitely without a referendum.
The key phrase in the bill was:
"2. (1) For the purpose of representation in the Legislative Assembly, Ontario is divided into electoral districts whose number, names and boundaries are identical to those of its federal electoral districts."
This means that the then 103 federal ridings in Ontario were the ridings used in the 1999 and 2003 Ontario General Elections (as well as recent Federal elections).
While the population of Ontario has been growing, this growth has not been equal in all regions. Recognizing that using a purely population based formula like the Federal Government was doing would see Northern Ontario issues unable to be represented in parliament, the Liberal government tabled and passed Bill 89, the Representation Amendment Act (Northern Ontario), 2004.
The key phrase in that bill was:
"2.1 The number of provincial electoral districts in Northern Ontario shall not be fewer than the number of such districts as existed on June 3, 1999."
(Side Note: Opposition MP Norm Sterling of the PC party tabled a bill that would counteract the Liberals bill, proposing that Southern Ontario be given 10 more seats. The trend seems to suggest that the PC party prefers a pure population formula for seats, while the Liberals are willing to favour Northern Ontario).
Our current election is for 107 provincial seats, 1 more than the 106 federal seats that exist in Ontario. This extra seat is in Northern Ontario as a result of the Bill 89.
If MMP wins the referendum, Bill 89 remains in effect unless repealed. I believe that this bill should be retained, meaning that of the 70% riding seats (expected to be 90 in the next election), that Northern Ontario will retain the number of seats it had on June 3, 1999.
Under the MMP, the complaint that Northern Ontario is over-represented under First Past the Post would no longer exist. Every voter would have a ballot that, because of the party-vote, would count toward deciding the make-up of the Ontario Legislature. Everyone would get an equal vote no matter where they lived in Ontario. Northern Ontario voters may have a greater say on riding-specific seats, but this is entirely fair given Northern Ontario voters have more geographically based issues.
While Northern Ontario voters often think and vote in a North-vs-South way, the same is not true of other regions of the province. A party which represents all regions of the province for their province-wide candidates will likely get more votes than a party that only represented population centres such as Toronto. This will mean an increase in representation for the North from the 30% Ontario-wide seats.
